U.S. ELECTIONS 2016
For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points. The last Marquette survey showed Sanders leading by one point.
‘Gold Standard’ Marquette Wisconsin Poll to Be Released Today
March 30, 2016
This afternoon, Marquette University Law School will release its final poll before next Tuesday’s Wisconsin Republican primary. In the school’s last survey, in late February, Donald Trump held a 30%-19% lead over Ted Cruz, with John Kasich below 10%.
A few polls out in the interim have shown a tightening race, with Trump and Cruz now tied in the 270toWin polling average, while John Kasich has been gaining significant ground.
The Marquette poll is seen by many as the ‘gold standard’ in Wisconsin, so it will be interesting to see where it ends up.
Wisconsin has 42 delegates, 18 are winner take all for the statewide winner, while the other 24 are winner take all based on the vote within each of the state’s 8 congressional districts (3 per district).
There has been less polling for the Democratic primary. The last Marquette survey showed the race a dead heat.
The poll often includes general election match-ups as well.
Sanders Sweeps Three Saturday Caucuses, Narrowing Clinton’s Delegate Lead
March 27, 2016
Bernie Sanders cruised to easy wins in all three Democratic caucus states Saturday, surpassing 1,000 total delegates in the process. The Vermont Senator received about 70% of the vote in Washington state and Hawaii, while scoring north of 80% in vote equivalents in Alaska. Sanders won 30 of the 41 total Alaska/Hawaii delegates and, at this point, has won 25 of 34 allocated delegates in Washington.
Here’s where things stand as of this morning. Sanders has narrowed Clinton’s lead by 35 delegates:
Another 67 delegates remain to be allocated in Washington. An estimate by The Greenpapers (as of Sunday AM) gives Sanders a 74-27 total for the state, meaning he would win about 49 of the remaining 67 delegates there.
Rubio Granted Request For Return of Five Alaska Delegates
March 30, 2016
Marco Rubio’s five Alaska delegates were returned to him this week, the result of a request granted by the State Republican Party. Donald Trump lost three of those, Ted Cruz two.
Per Alaska rules, delegates earned by those who withdraw from the race are redistributed based on the state’s proportional allocation method. In his letter to the Party, Rubio argued that he had suspended his campaign, but had not withdrawn from the race.
While small in number, any loss of delegates by frontrunner Donald Trump increases the likelihood that he will not receive the necessary 1,237 before the July Convention in Cleveland. Trump needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.
This is another reason why campaigns are usually suspended and not formally ended.
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Cruz, Sanders Lead in Wisconsin, Marquette Law Poll Finds
March 30, 2016
Ted Cruz has opened up a 10 point lead on Donald Trump in Wisconsin, per the latest survey from the respected polling unit at Marquette University Law School. This result is directionally consistent with recent polls showing a shift in the race, but it is the first survey to find the Texas Senator with the outright lead, beyond the margin of error.
Interestingly, Trump’s support is unchanged, at 30%, since the last Marquette survey in late February. Both Cruz and John Kasich saw significant gains, picking up voters that previously supported a now-withdrawn candidate or who have made up their mind in the final few weeks before the April 5 primary.
On the Republican side, Wisconsin has 42 delegates, 18 are winner take all for the statewide winner, while the other 24 are winner take all based on the vote within each of the state’s 8 congressional districts (3 per district).