A Red Cross team removed the body of a woman believed to have died of Ebola in Monrovia, Liberia, last week. Officials urge caution in handling victims’ bodies. Credit Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times
Ebola Cases Could Reach 1.4 Million Within Four Months, C.D.C. Estimates
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Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling.
In the worst-case scenario, the two countries could have a total of 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps spreading without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported.
In the best-case model, the epidemic in both countries would be “almost ended” by Jan. 20, the report said. Success would require conducting safe funerals at which no one touches the bodies, and treating 70 percent of patients in settings that reduce the risk of transmission. The report said the proportion of patients now in such settings was about 18 percent in Liberia and 40 percent in Sierra Leone.
The current official case count is 5,843, including 2,803 deaths, according to the W.H.O.
The C.D.C. estimates omit Guinea, which has been hit hard, because the epidemic struck in waves that could not be modeled.
The W.H.O. published its own revised estimates of the outbreak on Monday, predicting more than 20,000 cases by Nov. 2 if control does not improve. That figure is more conservative than the one from the C.D.C., but the W.H.O. report also noted that many cases were unreported and said that without effective help, the three most affected countries would soon be reporting thousands of cases and deaths per week. It said its projections were similar to those from the C.D.C.
The W.H.O. report also raised, for the first time, the possibility that the disease would not be stopped but could become endemic in West Africa, meaning that it could become a constant presence there.
President Obama’s promise last week to send 3,000 military personnel to Liberia and to build 17 hospitals there, each with 100 beds, was part of the solution, Dr. Frieden said. But it was not clear when those hospitals would be ready, or who would staff them.
Dr. Frieden said the Defense Department had already delivered parts of a 25-bed unit that would soon be set up to treat health workers who become infected, a safety measure he said was important to help encourage health professionals to volunteer. He said that more aid groups were also arriving in the region to set up treatment centers, and that a “surge” of help would “break the back of the epidemic.”
The body of a man thought to have died of Ebola on a Monrovia, Liberia, street on Monday. The Liberian president has implored President Obama to do more. Credit Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times
It’s a shame that a small island in the caribbean, with a cruel blockade imposed by the US is the first nation to send doctors to Africa to treat Ebola.
For those who still insist on calling it an “economic embargo”, a glance at the report on the effects of this irrational U.S. policy in areas such as public health, due to be presented this month at the UN, is enough to dismiss this euphemism or at the very least call it into question. The blockade, a policy against life, a glance at the report on the effects of this irrational U.S. policy in areas such as public health, due to be presented this month at the UN, is enough to dismiss this euphemism or at the very least call it into question.
In a country such as Cuba, where the health system is a universal right for all without discrimination rather than a business that lines a few pockets, the prohibitions or difficulties in acquiring certain medicines, replacement parts for diagnostic and medical equipment, instruments and other supplies, can not in any way be seen as simple economic sanctions.
Yet, trying to survive the cruelty of the US blockade for many years, Cuba, in solidarity with those countries like Haiti, and now Africa, ravaged by cholera and capitalism, famine, Ebola, and natural disasters, is the first nation in the world to send doctors to Africa to treat victims of Ebola.
Shame on you Mr. Obama, Africa needs the billions that you have given to the fascists in Ukraine! Ebola can reach 1.4 million in three months and the boisterous Defense Department all they can do is to send “parts” for 25 beds!!!!
Please listen to the Liberian president IMPLORING YOU TO DO MORE THAN 25 BEDS AND SENDING TROOPS! THEY ARE DYING, THE PEOPLE ARE DYING!
Ebola Virus Outbreak 2014: Dying at the Hospital Door | The New York Times
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